@article{Zelinka:2026:10.1038/s43247-026-03461-8,
author = {Zelinka, MD and Myers, TA and Qin, Y and Chao, LW and Klein, SA and Po-Chedley, S and Ma, PL and Wall, CJ and Ceppi, P and Gettelman, A},
doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03461-8},
journal = {Communications Earth and Environment},
title = {Recent cloud trends and extremes reaffirm established bounds on cloud feedback and aerosol-cloud interactions},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03461-8},
volume = {7},
year = {2026}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - Earth’s energy imbalance has increased markedly over the past two decades, reaching a record in 2023. Both the long-term trend and year-to-year variations are linked to reduced reflection of sunlight by low-level clouds, which is pronounced over Northern Hemisphere oceans. However, the causes of these cloud changes and their implications for future Earth system evolution are unknown, raising concerns about a stronger-than-expected cloud feedback. Here we quantify the meteorological factors behind interannual cloud-radiative anomalies, several of which aligned to produce the extreme 2023 value. These meteorological variations are superposed on a background of declining sulfate aerosol concentrations, contributing to a sustained decrease in cloud reflection over the past 22 years. The resulting constraints on cloud feedback and aerosol forcing are consistent with previous studies, supporting an equilibrium climate sensitivity near 3<sup></sup>C (likely range 2.7–4.1<sup></sup>C). Thus, recent observations do not indicate an emerging stronger cloud feedback or underestimated future warming.
AU  - Zelinka,MD
AU  - Myers,TA
AU  - Qin,Y
AU  - Chao,LW
AU  - Klein,SA
AU  - Po-Chedley,S
AU  - Ma,PL
AU  - Wall,CJ
AU  - Ceppi,P
AU  - Gettelman,A
DO  - 10.1038/s43247-026-03461-8
PY  - 2026///
TI  - Recent cloud trends and extremes reaffirm established bounds on cloud feedback and aerosol-cloud interactions
T2  - Communications Earth and Environment
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03461-8
VL  - 7
ER  - 

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