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Journal articleFraser K, Cibrelus L, Horton J, et al., 2026,
Yellow fever outbreak potential in Djibouti, Somalia and Yemen: a mathematical modelling study
, BMC Global and Public Health, Vol: 4, ISSN: 2731-913XBackgroundThe importation of arbovirus diseases into new countries is a global concern. This risk is exacerbated by human movement and climate change effects. In the World Health Organization (WHO) Eastern Mediterranean regional office, three countries - Djibouti, Somalia, and Yemen - are currently classified as potential or moderate risk for yellow fever (YF) outbreaks.MethodsHere we present a quantitative assessment of the risk of introduction and propagation of yellow fever virus (YFV) transmission in Djibouti, Somalia and Yemen. This modelling has two components: i) projecting the risk of importation of infectious individuals into the countries of interest using a radiation model of human movement and ii) estimating the risk of onward transmission given importation using a dynamic compartmental model of yellow fever virus transmission. Both components are multiplicatively combined to give an overall relative outbreak risk combining both risk of importation and risk of an outbreak given importation.ResultsWe show that areas such as the western coast of Yemen, regions of Somalia bordering Ethiopia and Kenya, and Djibouti City have potential for YF outbreaks (where the estimated probability of an outbreak given an imported infectious case is over 50%). This is due to environmental suitability for transmission based on factors such as temperature and projected human mobility between endemic and at-risk regions.ConclusionsCountries bordering existing YF endemic regions are potentially vulnerable to both introduction of YF cases and subsequent outbreak spread. This promotes the awareness of YF importation potential when conducting clinical surveillance in at-risk countries.
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Journal articleZhao J, Paschalis A, Gentine P, et al., 2026,
Limited capability of current satellite solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence reconstructions to capture stomatal responses to environmental stresses
, Communications Earth and Environment, Vol: 7Quantification of the impact of environmental stress on terrestrial vegetation photosynthesis is crucial for our understanding of the global carbon cycle, particularly under a changing climate. Vegetation responses to environmental stress manifest first as plant physiological changes, and at later stages through changes in canopy structure. Here we leverage CO<inf>2</inf> and water flux data from 103 eddy covariance towers and satellite thermal images to assess whether current satellite reconstructions of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence capture these plant mechanisms. After removing seasonality using standardized anomalies (z-scores), we found that the relationship between tower-observed gross primary productivity and fluorescence reconstructions considerably weakened across a wide range of biomes. This loss of correlation results from a decoupling between stomatal responses and the physiological emission yield (Φ<inf>F</inf>) of fluorescence reconstructions during soil and atmospheric dry periods. The consequence is that productivity derived from fluorescence reconstructions will be progressively overestimated as dry conditions persist.
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Journal articleZelinka MD, Myers TA, Qin Y, et al., 2026,
Recent cloud trends and extremes reaffirm established bounds on cloud feedback and aerosol-cloud interactions
, Communications Earth and Environment, Vol: 7Earth’s energy imbalance has increased markedly over the past two decades, reaching a record in 2023. Both the long-term trend and year-to-year variations are linked to reduced reflection of sunlight by low-level clouds, which is pronounced over Northern Hemisphere oceans. However, the causes of these cloud changes and their implications for future Earth system evolution are unknown, raising concerns about a stronger-than-expected cloud feedback. Here we quantify the meteorological factors behind interannual cloud-radiative anomalies, several of which aligned to produce the extreme 2023 value. These meteorological variations are superposed on a background of declining sulfate aerosol concentrations, contributing to a sustained decrease in cloud reflection over the past 22 years. The resulting constraints on cloud feedback and aerosol forcing are consistent with previous studies, supporting an equilibrium climate sensitivity near 3<sup>∘</sup>C (likely range 2.7–4.1<sup>∘</sup>C). Thus, recent observations do not indicate an emerging stronger cloud feedback or underestimated future warming.
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Journal articleAuestad H, Shibu A, Ceppi P, et al., 2026,
The latent heating feedback effect on storm tracks in current and future climates
, Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol: 9Extratropical storms release latent heat as they transport warm, moist air poleward and upward. That latent heating feeds back on storms by intensifying individual cyclones and by altering the environmental conditions for the growth of storms, constituting a latent heating-dynamics feedback. As the climate warms, storm-track latent heating increases, but the role of this feedback in a future climate remains unclear. Using atmospheric general-circulation model experiments that separate the coupled heating-dynamics feedback from climatological changes in latent heating, we show that this feedback plays a leading-order role in intensifying storm tracks under +4 K warming. The feedback increases lower-tropospheric storm intensity, compensating for reduced baroclinicity, while its upper-tropospheric effect is seasonal: amplifying summer eddies but damping winter ones. The feedback is critical for storms that grow in moist environments, typical for summer and warmer climates, underscoring the need for accurate representation of moist processes in climate models.
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Journal articleDe Lorm TA, Heon SP, Bernard H, et al., 2026,
Bird and mammal communities transform without collapsing in response to oil palm replanting
, Forest Ecology and Management, Vol: 619, ISSN: 0378-1127Replanting a tree plantation - that is, clearing old trees and replacing these with young plants - drastically alters its habitat structure and microclimate, leading to changes in its biodiversity. Nevertheless, we lack an understanding of how the replanting of oil palm plantations - the most prominent oil crop globally - affects mammals and birds, while the amount of area replanted will increase exponentially over the next decades. We therefore studied how the bird and mammal community of an oil palm plantation in Malaysian Borneo changed in response to replanting. Using camera traps for mammals, and acoustic recordings and BirdNET for birds, we show that both communities are transformed. Mammal species richness slightly dropped, because of the absence from replanted plantations of long- and pig-tailed macaques (Macaca fascicularis and M. nemestrina), both endangered primate species. Bird species richness did not significantly differ between replanted and mature plantations. However, the detection frequency of most species changed, as the bird community shifted from forest and woodland species towards open-habitat species. The detection frequency and species richness of different trophic niches stayed largely constant, indicating that birds will still be able to perform similar high-level ecological functions in replanted plantations. Overall, our results show that replanting reshaped mammal and bird communities, but that their diversity and abundance does not collapse. These findings stress the importance of staggered replanting, as opposed to replanting large stretches of plantation in one go, to bolster landscape level biodiversity, and underscore that tree plantations are temporally dynamic habitats.
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Journal articleGhail RC, Crouch EJP, Mason PJ, 2026,
The lost oceans of Venus
, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Vol: 692, ISSN: 0012-821XWhether Venus once had oceans and, if so, when it lost them are critical issues in the understanding of habitability on exoplanets, as well as for the future of life on Earth. Analysis of distinctive, lowland polygonal terrains on Venus reveals 6 main types. Many are several kilometres across, suggesting a mode of formation by contraction of confined marine clays, supporting the hypothesis that Venus had oceans within the last billion years. By analogy with the Messinian desiccation of the Mediterranean Sea on Earth, we identify other features of possible marine origin, including canali, which we conclude formed as submarine channels. The distribution of wrinkle ridges is consistent with them overlying salt layers, calculated to be at least 64 m thick, but probably significantly more, precipitated from evaporating oceans. While the interpretation of these features is not unambiguous, there is a compelling case that Venus once supported oceans, and perhaps life, across most of its surface.
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Journal articleCeppi P, Bodas-Salcedo A, Zelinka MD, et al., 2026,
The cloud feedback model intercomparison project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP7
, Geoscientific Model Development, Vol: 19, Pages: 8693-8708, ISSN: 1991-959XCloud processes constitute one of the key uncertainties for climate change projections. The fourth iteration of the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project, CFMIP4, contributes to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7), by providing a set of global climate model experiments aiming to enhance our understanding of clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity, thereby informing improved projections of future climate change. CFMIP4 targets four knowledge gaps: (1) Physical mechanisms of cloud feedback and adjustment; (2) Dependence of cloud feedback and adjustment on climate base state and on the nature of the forcing; (3) Coupled mechanisms of the sea-surface temperature “pattern effect”; and (4) Coupling of clouds with circulation and precipitation. CFMIP4 contributes four CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track experiments that are central to the quantification of climate feedback and sensitivity in past, present and future climates, essential for process understanding and model evaluation. Furthermore, CFMIP4 supports the joint analysis of models and observations through a data request that includes process and satellite simulator output.
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Journal articleArkell P, de Neri Machado F, Vicco A, et al., 2026,
Sero-catalytic and spatial modeling of dengue virus force of infection in Timor-Leste
, Nature Communications, ISSN: 2041-1723Dengue virus (DENV) infection causes significant morbidity and mortality across tropical and sub-tropical regions, including in Timor-Leste. In this study we present the results of a national, population-representative serological survey, used to determine the drivers of observed variations in DENV force-of-infection (FOI, i.e. the average annual per-capita risk of infection for a susceptible person) at high spatial resolution. Households were randomly selected from census data and occupants aged above one year were tested using the Panbio Indirect dengue IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay between October 2021 and February 2023. Sero-catalytic models accounting for household effect were applied to estimate the DENV FOI in enumeration areas (EAs, roughly equivalent to neighbourhoods/villages). Spatial models were applied to the local FOI estimates to assess their associations with climate and environmental factors, and to predict the FOI across the rest of Timor-Leste. A total of 4780 individuals from 1755 households across 102 EAs participated. DENV seroprevalence and FOI estimates were highly spatially heterogeneous across Timor-Leste, ranging from 0.010 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 0.005, 0.018) in EA 10104032 in Fatubossa, municipality Aileu, to 0.519 (0.295, 0.816) in EA 40403012 in Goulolo, municipality Bobonaro. Relative humidity was negatively associated with DENV FOI. The spatial models predicted highest DENV FOI along the Northern and Eastern coasts, with hotspots of transmission in Dili and Baucau cities. Findings will strengthen surveillance and guide the implementation of additional DENV control strategies such as Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes (currently being deployed in some parts of Timor-Leste), or vaccination.
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Journal articleSimmons OS, Vicco A, Martínez-Vega RA, et al., 2026,
Overall and serotype-specific dengue virus transmission intensity in Mexico, 2016–2023: a modelling study of case-notification data
, PLoS Medicine, Vol: 23, ISSN: 1549-1277BackgroundMexico, and the Americas region more widely, have experienced increased dengue incidence in recent years, and there are concerns that the changing climate may enhance dengue virus (DENV) transmission in the future. Whilst previous studies have characterised spatial heterogeneities in the long-term average risk of DENV infection in Mexico, the extent to which DENV transmission changes year-to-year has not been investigated. Furthermore, the extent to which DENV’s four serotypes (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3 and DENV-4) may differ in their transmissibility remains poorly characterised, both in Mexico and globally.Methods and findingsIn this study, we characterised the spatial and temporal variations in DENV transmission intensity, as defined by the force of infection, across 27 states in Mexico. We analysed annual dengue case data reported to the National Epidemiological Surveillance System (SINAVE) in Mexico between 2016 and 2023, which comprised 833,629 probable or confirmed cases, using established catalytic models and a new, serotype-specific extension of these models that characterises differences in the transmission intensity of the different serotypes. We found evidence of large spatial, temporal, and serotype-specific heterogeneities in transmission intensity across Mexico. Serotype-specific force of infection estimates suggest that DENV-1 and DENV-2 have historically circulated at high levels across Mexico, with DENV-4 showing a low transmission intensity throughout the study period. We found evidence of increasing DENV-3 transmission intensity across some states in recent years, coinciding with large outbreaks. The extent to which the serotype-specific transmission intensity estimates generated in this study are affected by potential heterogeneities in case reporting across states and through time remains to be validated in future studies.ConclusionsThis work quantifies serotype-specific differences in DENV transmission intensity using routinely co
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Journal articleNdagijimana S, Semakula M, Ishimwe C, et al., 2026,
Spatial and spatio-temporal modelling of climate variability and under-five diarrhoeal disease in Rwanda
, Environmental Research: Health, Vol: 4, ISSN: 2752-5309Background. Diarrhoeal disease remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children under five years (U5) in Rwanda, contributing substantially to healthcare utilisation and imposing considerable economic burdens on households and the health system. National estimates indicate that approximately 14.3% of children under five experienced diarrhoea in the two weeks preceding the 2019–2020 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey, and diarrhoea has been reported as the third leading cause of death in this age group. Climate variability may influence the risk of diarrhoeal disease, but evidence on how specific climatic factors affect diarrhoeal incidence across Rwanda’s diverse ecological zones and seasons remains limited. This study examined associations between maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity and U5 diarrhoeal incidence at the sector level in Rwanda. Methods. Monthly counts of U5 diarrhoeal cases reported by health facilities across 416 administrative sectors in Rwanda from January 2015 to December 2024 were analysed together with satellite-derived climate data. Spatio-temporal statistical models were used to evaluate associations between standardised climate variables and diarrhoeal incidence rates while accounting for geographic and seasonal variation. Model comparison relied on both goodness-of-fit metrics and out-of-sample predictive diagnostics. Results. Diarrhoeal incidence showed clear spatial and seasonal patterns, with persistently higher rates in northern and eastern Rwanda. In the final model maximum temperature was positively associated with increased diarrhoeal incidence, with a one-standard-deviation increase corresponding to a 5.6% rise in the estimated incidence rate ratio (RR = 1.056; 95% CrI: 1.02–1.09). Relative humidity showed a protective association (RR ≈ 0.919; 95% CrI: 0.89–0.94), while rainfall showed limited immediate effects. Conclusion. Under-five diarrhoeal inc
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