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Journal articleJeffrey B, Walters CE, Ainslie KEC, et al., 2020,
Anonymised and aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests that initial compliance with COVID-19 social distancing interventions was high and geographically consistent across the UK.
, Wellcome Open Res, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2398-502XBackground: Since early March 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic across the United Kingdom has led to a range of social distancing policies, which have resulted in reduced mobility across different regions. Crowd level data on mobile phone usage can be used as a proxy for actual population mobility patterns and provide a way of quantifying the impact of social distancing measures on changes in mobility. Methods: Here, we use two mobile phone-based datasets (anonymised and aggregated crowd level data from O2 and from the Facebook app on mobile phones) to assess changes in average mobility, both overall and broken down into high and low population density areas, and changes in the distribution of journey lengths. Results: We show that there was a substantial overall reduction in mobility, with the most rapid decline on the 24th March 2020, the day after the Prime Minister's announcement of an enforced lockdown. The reduction in mobility was highly synchronized across the UK. Although mobility has remained low since 26th March 2020, we detect a gradual increase since that time. We also show that the two different datasets produce similar trends, albeit with some location-specific differences. We see slightly larger reductions in average mobility in high-density areas than in low-density areas, with greater variation in mobility in the high-density areas: some high-density areas eliminated almost all mobility. Conclusions: These analyses form a baseline from which to observe changes in behaviour in the UK as social distancing is eased and inform policy towards the future control of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK.
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Journal articleGupta RK, Lipman M, Jackson C, et al., 2019,
Quantitative interferon gamma release assay and tuberculin skin test Results to predict incident tuberculosis: a prospective cohort study.
, American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Vol: 208, Pages: 984-991, ISSN: 1073-449XRATIONALE: Development of diagnostic tools with improved predictive value for tuberculosis (TB) is a global research priority. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated whether implementing higher diagnostic thresholds than currently recommended for QuantiFERON Gold-in-Tube (QFT-GIT), T-SPOT.TB and the tuberculin skin test (TST) might improve prediction of incident TB. METHODS: Follow-up of a UK cohort of 9,610 adult TB contacts and recent migrants was extended by re-linkage to national TB surveillance records (median follow-up 4.7 years). Incidence rates and rate ratios, sensitivities, specificities and predictive values for incident TB were calculated according to ordinal strata for quantitative results of QFT-GIT, T-SPOT.TB and TST (with adjustment for prior BCG). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: For all tests, incidence rates and rate ratios increased with the magnitude of the test result (p<0.0001). Over three years' follow-up, there was a modest increase in positive predictive value (PPV) with the higher thresholds (3.0% for QFT-GIT ≥0.35 IU/mL vs. 3.6% for ≥4.00 IU/mL; 3.4% for T-SPOT.TB ≥5 spots vs. 5.0% for ≥50 spots; and 3.1% for BCG-adjusted TST ≥5mm vs. 4.3% for ≥15mm). As thresholds increased, sensitivity to detect incident TB waned for all tests (61.0% for QFT-GIT ≥0.35 IU/mL vs. 23.2% for ≥4.00 IU/mL; 65.4% for T-SPOT.TB ≥5 spots vs. 27.2% for ≥50 spots; 69.7% for BCG-adjusted TST ≥5mm vs. 28.1% for ≥15mm). CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of higher thresholds for QFT-GIT, T-SPOT.TB and TST modestly increases PPV for incident TB, but markedly reduces sensitivity. Novel biomarkers or validated multivariable risk algorithms are required to improve prediction of incident TB. This article is open access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
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Conference paperPark M, Dave D, Russell G, et al., 2019,
FDG-PET/CT APPEARANCES IN MDR-TB PATIENTS WITH RESIDUAL CT ABNORMALITIES
, Winter Meeting of the British-Thoracic-Society, Publisher: BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, Pages: A69-A70, ISSN: 0040-6376 -
Conference paperChaplin E, Rervitt O, Ward S, et al., 2019,
CHANGING THE SHAPE OF REHABILITATION: BREATHLESSNESS REHABILITATION
, Winter Meeting of the British-Thoracic-Society, Publisher: BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, Pages: A6-A6, ISSN: 0040-6376 -
Journal articleBerrocal-Almanza LC, Harris R, Lalor MK, et al., 2019,
Effectiveness of pre-entry active tuberculosis and post-entry latent tuberculosis screening in new entrants to the UK: a retrospective, population-based cohort study.
, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol: 19, Pages: 1191-1201, ISSN: 1473-3099BACKGROUND: Evaluating interventions that might lead to a reduction in tuberculosis in high-income countries with a low incidence of the disease is key to accelerate progress towards its elimination. In such countries, migrants are known to contribute a large proportion of tuberculosis cases to the burden. We assessed the effectiveness of screening for active tuberculosis before entry to the UK and for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) post-entry for reduction of tuberculosis in new-entrant migrants to the UK. Additionally, we investigated the effect of access to primary care on tuberculosis incidence in this population. METHODS: We did a retrospective, population-based cohort study of migrants from 66 countries who were negative for active tuberculosis at pre-entry screening between Jan 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2014, and eligible for LTBI screening. We used record linkage to track their first contact with primary care, uptake of LTBI screening, and development of active tuberculosis in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. To assess the effectiveness of the pre-entry screening programme, we identified a control group of migrants who were not screened for active tuberculosis using the specific code for new entrants to the UK registering in primary care within the National Health Service patient registration data system. Our primary outcome was development of active tuberculosis notified to the National Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance System. FINDINGS: Our cohort comprised 224 234 migrants who were screened for active tuberculosis before entry to the UK and a control group of 118 738 migrants who were not. 103 990 (50%) migrants who were screened for active tuberculosis registered in primary care; all individuals in the control group were registered in primary care. 1828 tuberculosis cases were identified during the cohort time, of which 31 were prevalent. There were 26 incident active tuberculosis cases in migrants with no evidence of primary care registration, an
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Conference paperGupta R, Lipman M, Jackson C, et al., 2019,
Do higher quantitative interferon gamma release assay or tuberculin skin test results help to predict incident tuberculosis? Data from the UK PREDICT study
, International Congress of the European-Respiratory-Society (ERS), Publisher: EUROPEAN RESPIRATORY SOC JOURNALS LTD, ISSN: 0903-1936- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 1
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Journal articleYang Y, Walker TM, Walker AS, et al., 2019,
DeepAMR for predicting co-occurrent resistance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis
, Bioinformatics, Vol: 35, Pages: 3240-3249, ISSN: 1367-4803MotivationResistance co-occurrence within first-line anti-tuberculosis (TB) drugs is a common phenomenon. Existing methods based on genetic data analysis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) have been able to predict resistance of MTB to individual drugs, but have not considered the resistance co-occurrence and cannot capture latent structure of genomic data that corresponds to lineages.ResultsWe used a large cohort of TB patients from 16 countries across six continents where whole-genome sequences for each isolate and associated phenotype to anti-TB drugs were obtained using drug susceptibility testing recommended by the World Health Organization. We then proposed an end-to-end multi-task model with deep denoising auto-encoder (DeepAMR) for multiple drug classification and developed DeepAMR_cluster, a clustering variant based on DeepAMR, for learning clusters in latent space of the data. The results showed that DeepAMR outperformed baseline model and four machine learning models with mean AUROC from 94.4% to 98.7% for predicting resistance to four first-line drugs [i.e. isoniazid (INH), ethambutol (EMB), rifampicin (RIF), pyrazinamide (PZA)], multi-drug resistant TB (MDR-TB) and pan-susceptible TB (PANS-TB: MTB that is susceptible to all four first-line anti-TB drugs). In the case of INH, EMB, PZA and MDR-TB, DeepAMR achieved its best mean sensitivity of 94.3%, 91.5%, 87.3% and 96.3%, respectively. While in the case of RIF and PANS-TB, it generated 94.2% and 92.2% sensitivity, which were lower than baseline model by 0.7% and 1.9%, respectively. t-SNE visualization shows that DeepAMR_cluster captures lineage-related clusters in the latent space.Availability and implementationThe details of source code are provided at http://www.robots.ox.ac.uk/∼davidc/code.php.
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Journal articleLalvani A, Whitworth HS, 2019,
Progress in interferon-gamma release assay development and applications: an unfolding story of translational research
, ANNALS OF TRANSLATIONAL MEDICINE, Vol: 7, ISSN: 2305-5839- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 3
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Journal articleHalliday A, Masonou T, Tolosa-Wright M, et al., 2019,
Immunodiagnosis of active tuberculosis
, Expert Review of Respiratory Medicine, Vol: 13, Pages: 521-532, ISSN: 1747-6348Introduction: There is an unmet clinical need for improved diagnostic tests for active tuberculosis (TB) to provide high sensitivity for all cases, accelerate time to diagnosis and ensure timely and appropriate treatment. Whilst the measurement of M.tb-specific immune responses is widely used for detecting infection in the absence of TB symptoms (i.e. latent TB infection), there is currently no role for immunodiagnostics in active TB disease. This is primarily due to insufficient sensitivity, and an inability to discriminate between active disease and controlled, latent TB infection. Areas covered: In this review, we focus on recent developments in the use of immune-based tests to provide a point of care test for the rule-in or rule-out of active TB. Expert opinion: Recent studies have demonstrated that second-generation IGRAs have the potential to rule-out active TB, particularly in low burden settings. Newer technological platforms, including systems serology and flow cytometry, offer the means to measure specific M.tb specific immune signatures which have been shown to have a high level of accuracy for active TB. However, it is now crucial that new and promising test undergo validation in clinically relevant cohorts which include the full spectrum of TB patients and differential diagnoses.
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Journal articleMasonou T, Hokey DA, Lahey T, et al., 2019,
CD4+ T cell cytokine responses to the DAR-901 booster vaccine in BCG-primed adults: A randomized, placebo-controlled trial
, PLoS ONE, Vol: 14, ISSN: 1932-6203BACKGROUND: DAR-901 is an inactivated whole cell tuberculosis booster vaccine, prepared using a new scalable, broth-grown method from the master cell bank of SRL172, a vaccine previously shown to prevent tuberculosis. This study examined whether DAR-901 (a) induces CD4+ T cell cytokine profiles previously proposed as correlates of protection and (b) has a specific vaccine-induced immunological signature compared to BCG or placebo. METHODS: We analysed CD4+ T cell cytokine immune responses from 10 DAR-901 recipients, 9 BCG recipients and 9 placebo recipients from the Phase I DAR-901 MDES trial. In that study, HIV-negative, IGRA-negative participants with prior BCG immunization were randomized (double-blind) to receive three intradermal injections of DAR-901 or saline placebo or two injections of saline placebo followed by an intradermal injection of BCG. Antigen-specific functional and phenotypic CD4+ T cell responses along with effector phenotype of responder cells were measured by intracellular cytokine staining. RESULTS: DAR-901 recipients exhibited increased DAR-901 antigen-specific polyfunctional or bifunctional T cell responses compared to baseline. Vaccine specific CD4+ IFNγ, IL2, TNFα and any cytokine responses peaked at 7 days post-dose 3. Th1 responses predominated, with most responder cells exhibiting a polyfunctional effector memory phenotype. BCG induced greater CD4+ T cell responses than placebo while the more modest DAR-901 responses did not differ from placebo. Neither DAR-901 nor BCG induced substantial or sustained Th17 /Th22 cytokine responses. CONCLUSION: DAR-901, a TB booster vaccine grown from the master cell bank of SRL 172 which was shown to prevent TB, induced low magnitude polyfunctional effector memory CD4+ T cell responses. DAR-901 responses were lower than those induced by BCG, a vaccine that has been shown ineffective as a booster to prevent tuberculosis disease. These results suggest that induction of higher levels of CD4+ c
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