@article{Ramani:2026,
author = {Ramani, A and Stapley, J and Dixon-Zegeye, M and Hamley, J and Amaral, L and Basanez, M-G and Walker, M},
journal = {Nature Communications},
title = {Modelling anti-Ov16 seroprevalence for the control and elimination of onchocerciasis},
year = {2026}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - The World Health Organization aims to verify elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in 12 endemic countries by 2030. Serological assays detecting IgG4 antibodies against the Onchocerca volvulus Ov16 antigen guide decision-making regarding start- and stop-mass ivermectin treatment, post-treatment and post-elimination surveillance. Transmission models are crucial for understanding anti-Ov16 IgG4 seroprevalence dynamics. Uncertainty associated with the parasite stage(s) stimulating seroconversion and duration of antibody persistence has hitherto hindered progress. We use the individual-based stochastic transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, to test hypotheses regarding the timing of seroconversion and seroreversion. We fit the model to data from (treatment-naïve) Gabon and validate it using data from Togo (four decades of control). The best-fit hypothesis is that seroconversion is elicited by near-patent/patent infection. The duration of antibody persistence remains uncertain. Our findings support the use of mechanistic transmission models to refine serological thresholds for start-and stop-treatment, and aid interpretation of post-treatment and post-elimination surveillance serological signals.
AU  - Ramani,A
AU  - Stapley,J
AU  - Dixon-Zegeye,M
AU  - Hamley,J
AU  - Amaral,L
AU  - Basanez,M-G
AU  - Walker,M
PY  - 2026///
SN  - 2041-1723
TI  - Modelling anti-Ov16 seroprevalence for the control and elimination of onchocerciasis
T2  - Nature Communications
ER  - 

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