@article{Guinane:2026:10.1007/s10098-025-03387-3,
author = {Guinane, E and Gumuruh, S and Tran, T and Bakkaloglu, S and Oluleye, G},
doi = {10.1007/s10098-025-03387-3},
journal = {Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy},
title = {Enhancing the economic viability of e-fuels for aviation and shipping decarbonisation through market-based policy interventions},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10098-025-03387-3},
volume = {28},
year = {2026}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - This paper examines how market-based policy interventions can enhance the economic viability of e-fuels for aviation and shipping, two hard-to-decarbonise sectors. A novel optimisation-based market penetration assessment model is developed and applied to three case studies, one based on a global shipping scenario with e-Ammonia and e-Methanol, and two based on national scenarios: UK aviation with advanced SAF and e-SAF. The optimisation model quantifies the effectiveness of Contracts-for-Difference (CfD), Carbon Contracts-for-Difference (CCfD), and optimised policy mixes in reducing e-fuel costs. Findings reveal that a combined policy approach can close the price gap between e-fuels and conventional fossil fuels. For instance, a carbon tax of $33.6–$162.8 per tonne CO2, paired with subsidies of $32.3–$79.15 per MWh, could lower e-Ammonia costs by 24%, and e-Methanol by 29% in shipping. In the UK aviation sector, CfD schemes designed to stabilise advanced SAF prices have the potential to reduce government support costs by up to 30%, making advanced SAF more competitive. Moreover, implementing CCfDs linked to emissions reductions for e-SAF could achieve cost parity by 2040 when combined with carbon pricing projected at $150 per tonne CO2. This research supports a more informed and data-driven policy design, ensuring that economic barriers to synthetic fuel adoption are addressed through a balanced, market-driven approach.
AU  - Guinane,E
AU  - Gumuruh,S
AU  - Tran,T
AU  - Bakkaloglu,S
AU  - Oluleye,G
DO  - 10.1007/s10098-025-03387-3
PY  - 2026///
SN  - 1618-954X
TI  - Enhancing the economic viability of e-fuels for aviation and shipping decarbonisation through market-based policy interventions
T2  - Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10098-025-03387-3
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-025-03387-3
VL  - 28
ER  - 

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