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Journal articleSparks N, Toumi R, 2024,
The Imperial College Storm model (IRIS) dataset
, Scientific Data, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2052-4463Assessing tropical cyclone risk on a global scale given the infrequency of landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) and the short period of reliable observations remains a challenge. Synthetic tropical cyclone datasets can help overcome these problems. Here we present a new global dataset created by IRIS, the ImpeRIal college Storm model. IRIS is novel because, unlike other synthetic TC models, it only simulates the decay from the point of lifetime maximum intensity. This minimises the bias in the dataset. It takes input from 42 years of observed tropical cyclones and creates a 10,000 year synthetic dataset of wind speed which is then validated against the observations. IRIS captures important statistical characteristics of the observed data. The return periods of the landfall maximum wind speed are realistic globally.
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Journal articleBlackford K, Kasoar M, Burton C, et al., 2024,
INFERNO-peat v1.0.0: a representation of northern high latitude peat fires in the JULES-INFERNO global fire model
, Geoscientific Model Development, Vol: 17, Pages: 3063-3079, ISSN: 1991-959XPeat fires in the northern high latitudes have the potential to burn vast amounts of carbon-rich organic soil, releasing large quantities of long-term stored carbon to the atmosphere. Due to anthropogenic activities and climate change, peat fires are increasing in frequency and intensity across the high latitudes. However, at present they are not explicitly included in most fire models. Here we detail the development of INFERNO-peat, the first parameterization of peat fires in the JULES-INFERNO (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments) fire model. INFERNO-peat utilizes knowledge from lab and field-based studies on peat fire ignition and spread to be able to model peat burnt area, burn depth, and carbon emissions, based on data of the moisture content, inorganic content, bulk density, soil temperature, and water table depth of peat. INFERNO-peat improves the representation of burnt area in the high latitudes, with peat fires simulating on average an additional 0.305×106 km2 of burn area each year, emitting 224.10 Tg of carbon. Compared to Global Fire Emissions Database version 5 (GFED5), INFERNO-peat captures ∼ 20 % more burnt area, whereas INFERNO underestimated burning by 50 %. Additionally, INFERNO-peat substantially improves the representation of interannual variability in burnt area and subsequent carbon emissions across the high latitudes. The coefficient of variation in carbon emissions is increased from 0.071 in INFERNO to 0.127 in INFERNO-peat, an almost 80 % increase. Therefore, explicitly modelling peat fires shows a substantial improvement in the fire modelling capabilities of JULES-INFERNO, highlighting the importance of representing peatland systems in fire models.
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Journal articleChandra N, Patra PK, Fujita R, et al., 2024,
Methane emissions decreased in fossil fuel exploitation and sustainably increased in microbial source sectors during 1990–2020
, Communications Earth & Environment, Vol: 5<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Methane (CH<jats:sub>4</jats:sub>) emission reduction to limit warming to 1.5 °C can be tracked by analyzing CH<jats:sub>4</jats:sub> concentration and its isotopic composition (<jats:italic>δ</jats:italic><jats:sup>13</jats:sup>C, <jats:italic>δ</jats:italic>D) simultaneously. Based on reconstructions of the temporal trends, latitudinal, and vertical gradient of CH<jats:sub>4</jats:sub> and δ<jats:sup>13</jats:sup>C from 1985 to 2020 using an atmospheric chemistry transport model, we show (1) emission reductions from oil and gas exploitation (ONG) since the 1990s stabilized the atmospheric CH<jats:sub>4</jats:sub> growth rate in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and (2) emissions from farmed animals, waste management, and coal mining contributed to the increase in CH<jats:sub>4</jats:sub> since 2006. Our findings support neither the increasing ONG emissions reported by the EDGARv6 inventory during 1990–2020 nor the large unconventional emissions increase reported by the GAINSv4 inventory since 2006. Total fossil fuel emissions remained stable from 2000 to 2020, most likely because the decrease in ONG emissions in some regions offset the increase in coal mining emissions in China.</jats:p>
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Journal articleDing M, Ryabtsev AN, Kononov EY, et al., 2024,
Spectrum and energy levels of the low-lying configurations of Nd III
, ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS, Vol: 684, ISSN: 0004-6361 -
Journal articleColomban L, Kretzschmar M, Krasnoselkikh V, et al., 2024,
Quantifying the diffusion of suprathermal electrons by whistler waves between 0.2 and 1 AU with Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe
, ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS, Vol: 684, ISSN: 0004-6361 -
Journal articleHellinger P, Verdini A, Montagud-Camps V, et al., 2024,
Anisotropy of plasma turbulence at ion scales: Hall and pressure-strain effects
, ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS, Vol: 684, ISSN: 0004-6361 -
Journal articleChawner H, Saboya E, Adcock KE, et al., 2024,
Atmospheric oxygen as a tracer for fossil fuel carbon dioxide: a sensitivity study in the UK
, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol: 24, Pages: 4231-4252, ISSN: 1680-7316We investigate the use of atmospheric oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2) measurements for the estimation of the fossil fuel component of atmospheric CO2 in the UK. Atmospheric potential oxygen (APO) – a tracer that combines O2 and CO2, minimizing the influence of terrestrial biosphere fluxes – is simulated at three sites in the UK, two of which make APO measurements. We present a set of model experiments that estimate the sensitivity of APO simulations to key inputs: fluxes from the ocean, fossil fuel flux magnitude and distribution, the APO baseline, and the exchange ratio of O2 to CO2 fluxes from fossil fuel combustion and the terrestrial biosphere. To estimate the influence of uncertainties in ocean fluxes, we compare three ocean O2 flux estimates from the NEMO–ERSEM, the ECCO–Darwin ocean model, and the Jena CarboScope (JC) APO inversion. The sensitivity of APO to fossil fuel emission magnitudes and to terrestrial biosphere and fossil fuel exchange ratios is investigated through Monte Carlo sampling within literature uncertainty ranges and by comparing different inventory estimates. We focus our model–data analysis on the year 2015 as ocean fluxes are not available for later years. As APO measurements are only available for one UK site at this time, our analysis focuses on the Weybourne station. Model–data comparisons for two additional UK sites (Heathfield and Ridge Hill) in 2021, using ocean flux climatologies, are presented in the Supplement. Of the factors that could potentially compromise simulated APO-derived fossil fuel CO2 (ffCO2) estimates, we find that the ocean O2 flux estimate has the largest overall influence at the three sites in the UK. At times, this influence is comparable in magnitude to the contribution of simulated fossil fuel CO2 to simulated APO. We find that simulations using different ocean fluxes differ from each other substantially. No single model estimate, or a model estimate that assumed zero oce
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Journal articleEriksson S, Swisdak M, Mallet A, et al., 2024,
Parker Solar Probe Observations of Magnetic Reconnection Exhausts in Quiescent Plasmas near the Sun
, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 965, ISSN: 0004-637X -
Journal articleMitchell DG, Hill ME, Mccomas DJ, et al., 2024,
Likely Common Coronal Source of Solar Wind and <SUP>3</SUP>He-enriched Energetic Particles: Uncoupled Transport from the Low Corona to 0.2 au
, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 965, ISSN: 0004-637X -
Journal articleHuang J, Kasper JC, Larson DE, et al., 2024,
Parker Solar Probe Observations of High Plasma β Solar Wind from the Streamer Belt (vol 265, 47, 2023)
, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL SUPPLEMENT SERIES, Vol: 271, ISSN: 0067-0049 -
Journal articleBowen TA, Bale SD, Chandran BDG, et al., 2024,
Mediation of collisionless turbulent dissipation through cyclotron resonance
, NATURE ASTRONOMY, Vol: 8, Pages: 482-490, ISSN: 2397-3366 -
Journal articleFiedler S, Naik V, O'Connor FM, et al., 2024,
Interactions between atmospheric composition and climate change - progress in understanding and future opportunities from AerChemMIP, PDRMIP, and RFMIP
, GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, Vol: 17, Pages: 2387-2417, ISSN: 1991-959X -
Journal articleStephenson P, Galand M, Deca J, et al., 2024,
Cold electrons at a weakly outgassing comet
, MONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 529, Pages: 2854-2865, ISSN: 0035-8711 -
Journal articleRojo M, Persson M, Sauvaud J-A, et al., 2024,
Electron moments derived from the Mercury Electron Analyzer during the cruise phase of BepiColombo
, ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS, Vol: 683, ISSN: 0004-6361 -
Journal articleMatteini L, Tenerani A, Landi S, et al., 2024,
Alfvénic fluctuations in the expanding solar wind: formation and radial evolution of spherical polarization
, Physics of Plasmas, Vol: 31, ISSN: 1070-664XWe investigate properties of large-scale solar wind Alfvénic fluctuations and their evolution during radial expansion. We assume a strictly radial background magnetic field B k R, and we use two-dimensional hybrid (fluid electrons, kinetic ions) simulations of balanced Alfvénic turbulence in the plane orthogonal to B; the simulated plasma evolves in a system comoving with the solar wind (i.e., in the expanding box approximation). Despite some model limitations, simulations exhibit important properties observed in the solar wind plasma: Magnetic field fluctuations evolve toward a state with low-amplitude variations in the amplitude B ¼ jBj and tend to a spherical polarization. This is achieved in the plasma by spontaneously generating field aligned, radial fluctuations that suppress local variations of B, maintaining B const. spatially in the plasma. We show that within the constraint of spherical polarization, variations in the radial component of the magnetic field, BR lead to a simple relation between dBR and dB ¼ jdBj as dBR dB2=ð2BÞ, which correctly describes the observed evolution of the rms of radial fluctuations in the solar wind. During expansion, the background magnetic field amplitude decreases faster than that of fluctuations so that their the relative amplitude increases. In the regime of strong fluctuations, dB B, this causes local magnetic field reversals, consistent with solar wind switchbacks.
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Journal articleLiu YD, Zhu B, Ran H, et al., 2024,
Direct In Situ Measurements of a Fast Coronal Mass Ejection and Associated Structures in the Corona
, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 963, ISSN: 0004-637X -
Journal articleKuhlbrodt T, Swaminathan R, Ceppi P, et al., 2024,
A glimpse into the future: the 2023 ocean temperature and sea ice extremes in the context of longer-term climate change
, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol: 105, Pages: E474-E485, ISSN: 0003-0007In the year 2023, we have seen extraordinary extrema in high sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and in low sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean, outside the 4σ envelope of the 1982–2011 daily time series. Earth’s net global energy imbalance (12 months up to September 2023) amounts to +1.9 W m−2 as part of a remarkably large upward trend, ensuring further heating of the ocean. However, the regional radiation budget over the North Atlantic does not show signs of a suggested significant step increase from less negative aerosol forcing since 2020. While the temperature in the top 100 m of the global ocean has been rising in all basins since about 1980, specifically the Atlantic basin has continued to further heat up since 2016, potentially contributing to the extreme SST. Similarly, salinity in the top 100 m of the ocean has increased in recent years specifically in the Atlantic basin, and in addition in about 2015 a substantial negative trend for sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean began. Analyzing climate and Earth system model simulations of the future, we find that the extreme SST in the North Atlantic and the extreme in Southern Ocean sea ice extent in 2023 lie at the fringe of the expected mean climate change for a global surface-air temperature warming level (GWL) of 1.5°C, and closer to the average at a 3.0°C GWL. Understanding the regional and global drivers of these extremes is indispensable for assessing frequency and impacts of similar events in the coming years.
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Journal articleJohnson M, Rivera YJ, Niembro T, et al., 2024,
Helium Abundance Periods Observed by the Solar Probe Cup on Parker Solar Probe: Encounters 1-14
, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 964, ISSN: 0004-637X -
Journal articleKellogg PJ, Mozer FS, Moncuquet M, et al., 2024,
Heating and Acceleration of the Solar Wind by Ion Acoustic Waves-Parker Solar Probe
, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 964, ISSN: 0004-637X -
Journal articleCoburn JT, Verscharen D, Owen CJ, et al., 2024,
The Regulation of the Solar Wind Electron Heat Flux by Wave-Particle Interactions
, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 964, ISSN: 0004-637X -
Journal articleGrimmich N, Prencipe F, Turner DL, et al., 2024,
Multi Satellite Observation of a Foreshock Bubble Causing an Extreme Magnetopause Expansion
, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS, Vol: 129, ISSN: 2169-9380 -
Journal articleFeingold G, Ghate VP, Russell LM, et al., 2024,
Physical science research needed to evaluate the viability and risks of marine cloud brightening
, Science Advances, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2375-2548Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is the deliberate injection of aerosol particles into shallow marine clouds to increase their reflection of solar radiation and reduce the amount of energy absorbed by the climate system. From the physical science perspective, the consensus of a broad international group of scientists is that the viability of MCB will ultimately depend on whether observations and models can robustly assess the scale-up of local-to-global brightening in today’s climate and identify strategies that will ensure an equitable geographical distribution of the benefits and risks associated with projected regional changes in temperature and precipitation. To address the physical science knowledge gaps required to assess the societal implications of MCB, we propose a substantial and targeted program of research—field and laboratory experiments, monitoring, and numerical modeling across a range of scales.
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Journal articleMostafavi P, Allen RC, Jagarlamudi VK, et al., 2024,
Parker Solar Probe observations of collisional effects on thermalizing the young solar wind
, ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS, Vol: 682, ISSN: 0004-6361 -
Journal articleQi Y, Ergun R, Pathak N, et al., 2024,
Investigation of a Magnetic Reconnection Event with Extraordinarily High Particle Energization in Magnetotail Turbulence
, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS, Vol: 962, ISSN: 2041-8205 -
Journal articleTrotta D, Larosa A, Nicolaou G, et al., 2024,
Properties of an Interplanetary Shock Observed at 0.07 and 0.7 au by Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter
, The Astrophysical Journal, Vol: 962, Pages: 147-147, ISSN: 0004-637X<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter (SolO) missions opened a new observational window in the inner heliosphere, which is finally accessible to direct measurements. On 2022 September 5, a coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven interplanetary (IP) shock was observed as close as 0.07 au by PSP. The CME then reached SolO, which was radially well-aligned at 0.7 au, thus providing us with the opportunity to study the shock properties at different heliocentric distances. We characterize the shock, investigate its typical parameters, and compare its small-scale features at both locations. Using the PSP observations, we investigate how magnetic switchbacks and ion cyclotron waves are processed upon shock crossing. We find that switchbacks preserve their V–B correlation while compressed upon the shock passage, and that the signature of ion cyclotron waves disappears downstream of the shock. By contrast, the SolO observations reveal a very structured shock transition, with a population of shock-accelerated protons of up to about 2 MeV, showing irregularities in the shock downstream, which we correlate with solar wind structures propagating across the shock. At SolO, we also report the presence of low-energy (∼100 eV) electrons scattering due to upstream shocklets. This study elucidates how the local features of IP shocks and their environments can be very different as they propagate through the heliosphere.</jats:p>
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Journal articleLaker R, Horbury TS, O'Brien H, et al., 2024,
Using Solar Orbiter as an Upstream Solar Wind Monitor for Real Time Space Weather Predictions
, SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS, Vol: 22 -
Journal articleJones GH, Snodgrass C, Tubiana C, et al., 2024,
The Comet Interceptor mission
, Space Science Reviews, Vol: 220, ISSN: 0038-6308Here we describe the novel, multi-point Comet Interceptor mission. It is dedicated to the exploration of a little-processed long-period comet, possibly entering the inner Solar System for the first time, or to encounter an interstellar object originating at another star. The objectives of the mission are to address the following questions: What are the surface composition, shape, morphology, and structure of the target object? What is the composition of the gas and dust in the coma, its connection to the nucleus, and the nature of its interaction with the solar wind? The mission was proposed to the European Space Agency in 2018, and formally adopted by the agency in June 2022, for launch in 2029 together with the Ariel mission. Comet Interceptor will take advantage of the opportunity presented by ESA’s F-Class call for fast, flexible, low-cost missions to which it was proposed. The call required a launch to a halo orbit around the Sun-Earth L2 point. The mission can take advantage of this placement to wait for the discovery of a suitable comet reachable with its minimum ΔV capability of 600 ms-1. Comet Interceptor will be unique in encountering and studying, at a nominal closest approach distance of 1000 km, a comet that represents a near-pristine sample of material from the formation of the Solar System. It will also add a capability that no previous cometary mission has had, which is to deploy two sub-probes – B1, provided by the Japanese space agency, JAXA, and B2 – that will follow different trajectories through the coma. While the main probe passes at a nominal 1000 km distance, probes B1 and B2 will follow different chords through the coma at distances of 850 km and 400 km, respectively. The result will be unique, simultaneous, spatially resolved information of the 3-dimensional properties of the target comet and its interaction with the space environment. We present the mission’s science background leading to these objectives, as
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Journal articleLouarn P, Fedorov A, Prech L, et al., 2024,
Skewness and kurtosis of solar wind proton distribution functions: The normal inverse-Gaussian model and its implications
, ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS, Vol: 682, ISSN: 0004-6361 -
Journal articleWells CD, Kasoar M, Ezzati M, et al., 2024,
Significant human health co-benefits of mitigating African emissions
, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol: 24, Pages: 1025-1039, ISSN: 1680-7316Future African aerosol emissions, and therefore air pollution levels and health outcomes, are uncertain and understudied. Understanding the future health impacts of pollutant emissions from this region is crucial. Here, this research gap is addressed by studying the range in the future health impacts of aerosol emissions from Africa in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, using the UK Earth System Model version 1 (UKESM1), along with human health concentration-response functions. The effects of Africa following a high-pollution aerosol pathway are studied relative to a low-pollution control, with experiments varying aerosol emissions from industry and biomass burning. Using present-day demographics, annual deaths within Africa attributable to ambient particulate matter are estimated to be lower by 150 000 (5th-95th confidence interval of 67 000-234 000) under stronger African aerosol mitigation by 2090, while those attributable to O3 are lower by 15 000 (5th-95th confidence interval of 9000-21 000). The particulate matter health benefits are realised predominantly within Africa, with the O3-driven benefits being more widespread - though still concentrated in Africa - due to the longer atmospheric lifetime of O3. These results demonstrate the important health co-benefits from future emission mitigation in Africa.
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Journal articleGershman DJ, Fuselier SA, Cohen IJ, et al., 2024,
Magnetic reconnection at planetary bodies and astrospheres
, Space Science Reviews, Vol: 220, ISSN: 0038-6308Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental mechanism for the transport of mass and energy in planetary magnetospheres and astrospheres. While the process of reconnection is itself ubiquitous across a multitude of systems, the techniques used for its analysis can vary across scientific disciplines. Here we frame the latest understanding of reconnection theory by missions such as NASA’s Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission for use throughout the solar system and beyond. We discuss how reconnection can couple magnetized obstacles to both sub- and super-magnetosonic upstream flows. In addition, we address the need to model sheath plasmas and field-line draping around an obstacle to accurately parameterize the possibility for reconnection to occur. We conclude with a discussion of how reconnection energy conversion rates scale throughout the solar system. The results presented are not only applicable to within our solar system but also to astrospheres and exoplanets, such as the first recently detected exoplanet magnetosphere of HAT-11-1b.
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