@article{Guo:2026:10.5194/acp-26-5169-2026,
author = {Guo, J and Xie, X and Myhre, G and Shindell, D and Kirkevåg, A and Iversen, T and Voulgarakis, A and Takemura, T and Shang, K and Li, X and Shi, Z and Liu, Y and Liu, X and Yan, H},
doi = {10.5194/acp-26-5169-2026},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
pages = {5169--5184},
title = {Distinct drivers of recent seasonal precipitation increase over Central Asia: roles of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5169-2026},
volume = {26},
year = {2026}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - <jats:p>Abstract. Observational evidence reveals a pronounced wetting trend over Central Asia in recent decades, with the most substantial increases occurring during winter and summer. Yet the extent to which the drivers of these changes differ seasonally remains unknown. Here, we use single-forcing experiments from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) to examine the effects of various external forcings on winter and summer precipitation across Central Asia and to explore the physical mechanisms underlying seasonal precipitation changes. We find that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing mainly increases winter precipitation by enhancing atmospheric moisture content through warming. In contrast, in summer, Asian sulfate aerosols enhance precipitation by modulating the westerly jet, which strengthens atmospheric moisture transport into the region. Asian black carbon exerts an opposing influence that partially offsets the sulfate-induced effect. Further attribution analysis based on CMIP6 simulations reinforces these sensitivity results and shows that GHG forcing is the primary driver of winter precipitation increases whereas anthropogenic aerosols dominate summer trends. Future CMIP6 projections suggest that under moderate- to high-emission scenarios, winter precipitation will continue to rise due to increasing GHG concentrations, while summer precipitation may decline across much of Central Asia as a result of reduced aerosol emissions following Asian clean air policies. These findings highlight a distinct seasonality in the drivers of recent precipitation increase and suggest a plausible divergence in future winter and summer precipitation trends.</jats:p>
AU  - Guo,J
AU  - Xie,X
AU  - Myhre,G
AU  - Shindell,D
AU  - Kirkevåg,A
AU  - Iversen,T
AU  - Voulgarakis,A
AU  - Takemura,T
AU  - Shang,K
AU  - Li,X
AU  - Shi,Z
AU  - Liu,Y
AU  - Liu,X
AU  - Yan,H
DO  - 10.5194/acp-26-5169-2026
EP  - 5184
PY  - 2026///
SP  - 5169
TI  - Distinct drivers of recent seasonal precipitation increase over Central Asia: roles of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases
T2  - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5169-2026
UR  - https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5169-2026
VL  - 26
ER  - 

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