@article{Zelinka:2026:10.1038/s43247-026-03461-8,
author = {Zelinka, MD and Myers, TA and Qin, Y and Chao, L-W and Klein, SA and Po-Chedley, S and Ma, P-L and Wall, CJ and Ceppi, P and Gettelman, A},
doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03461-8},
journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
title = {Recent cloud trends and extremes reaffirm established bounds on cloud feedback and aerosol-cloud interactions},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03461-8},
volume = {7},
year = {2026}
}

Download

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Earth’s energy imbalance has increased markedly over the past two decades, reaching a record in 2023. Both the long-term trend and year-to-year variations are linked to reduced reflection of sunlight by low-level clouds, which is pronounced over Northern Hemisphere oceans. However, the causes of these cloud changes and their implications for future Earth system evolution are unknown, raising concerns about a stronger-than-expected cloud feedback. Here we quantify the meteorological factors behind interannual cloud-radiative anomalies, several of which aligned to produce the extreme 2023 value. These meteorological variations are superposed on a background of declining sulfate aerosol concentrations, contributing to a sustained decrease in cloud reflection over the past 22 years. The resulting constraints on cloud feedback and aerosol forcing are consistent with previous studies, supporting an equilibrium climate sensitivity near 3C (likely range 2.7–4.1C). Thus, recent observations do not indicate an emerging stronger cloud feedback or underestimated future warming.
AU  - Zelinka,MD
AU  - Myers,TA
AU  - Qin,Y
AU  - Chao,L-W
AU  - Klein,SA
AU  - Po-Chedley,S
AU  - Ma,P-L
AU  - Wall,CJ
AU  - Ceppi,P
AU  - Gettelman,A
DO  - 10.1038/s43247-026-03461-8
PY  - 2026///
SN  - 2662-4435
TI  - Recent cloud trends and extremes reaffirm established bounds on cloud feedback and aerosol-cloud interactions
T2  - Communications Earth & Environment
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03461-8
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03461-8
VL  - 7
ER  - 

Download