@article{Ceppi:2026,
author = {Ceppi, P and Wilson, Kemsley S and Andersen, H and Andrews, T and Kramer, RJ and Nowack, P and Wall, CJ and Zelinka, MD},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)},
title = {Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations},
year = {2026}
}

Download

TY  - JOUR
AB  - From mid-2003 to mid-2024, a global decrease in low-cloud amount enhanced the absorption ofsolar radiation by 0.22±0.07Wm−2 per decade (±1σ range), accelerating the energy imbalance trend duringthat period (0.44Wm−2 per decade). Through controlling factor analysis, here we show that the low-cloudtrend is due to a combination of cloud feedback and adjustments to greenhouse gases and aerosols (respectively 0.09±0.02, 0.05±0.03, and 0.03±0.03Wm−2 per decade), which jointly account for 74% of the trend. The contribution of natural climate variability is weak but uncertain (0.01±0.08Wm−2 per decade), owing to apoorly constrained trend in boundary-layer inversion strength. Importantly, the observed low-cloud radiativetrend lies well within the range of values simulated by contemporary global climate models under conditionsclose to present day. Any systematic model error in the representation of present-day global energy imbalancetrends is thus likely to originate in processes unrelated to low clouds.
AU  - Ceppi,P
AU  - Wilson,Kemsley S
AU  - Andersen,H
AU  - Andrews,T
AU  - Kramer,RJ
AU  - Nowack,P
AU  - Wall,CJ
AU  - Zelinka,MD
PY  - 2026///
SN  - 1680-7316
TI  - Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations
T2  - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)
ER  - 

Download